Email marketing, on the other hand, has the advantage of being an opt-in channel—and conversion rates from promotional campaigns were way up in 2020, according to data from Omnisend. Marketers can focus on growing email marketing and consider other opt-in channels to communicate with customers, according to a piece in Multichannel Merchant.

Omnisend research indicates that conversion rates for promotional campaigns increased 111 percent year-over-year and automated messages saw a lift of 95 percent. Moreover, additional opt-in channels, such as SMS and web push notifications, also experienced a rise in 2020. SMS messages specifically increased nearly 400 percent and conversion rates were up more than 100 percent. Moreover, as the effectiveness of third-party cookies continues to depreciate, such channels will continue to increase in relevance.

For more on the advantages of using email marketing as an opt-in channel to reach consumers, read on in Multichannel Merchant.

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Complicating matters: Estimated opt-in rates are looking paltry, around 20-30 percent. That means that targeting audiences and attributing online behavior just became a more challenging task for digital marketers.

Apple’s policy change, in addition to other data visibility limitations like privacy regulation, has had a ripple effect across the digital marketing industry. Facebook, for instance, reduced its conversion tracking window from 28 days to seven and cited Apple as the impetus. Though the result of these limitations is a muddling of data insights and less accurate reporting, marketers who continue to leverage Facebook ads can focus on three core principles that hold true despite this erosion of data, according to a piece in AdMonsters by Elliot Gensemer, Senior Director, Account Services at Metric Theory.

Efficacy of Channel Marketing Data

Though Facebook has limited its attribution window to seven days, Gensemer writes, in some cases clients’ conversions occur outside of that 28-day window. Therefore, blinds spots in data reporting already exist. He recommends creating benchmarks to account for data blind spots, focus on where the data is most reliable and adjust channel performance goals.

Focus on Incrementality

Optimal budget setting depends on leveraging incrementality of conversions, or focusing on how many new customers were gained from the investment as opposed to attempting to determine how advertising is contributing to the growth of the business. Gensemer suggests investing in tactics that have the greatest incremental impact and gauging the lift that occurs from each channel and tactic.

For more on these principles, including leaning into personalization through ad creative and user experience, read more in AdMonsters.

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What’s more, users have to actively opt in to each individual app, and ATT forbids the use of workarounds such as fingerprinting. “It is more than a technical change,” says Gartner analyst Eric Schmitt. “It is a clear policy change from Apple.”

Gartner estimates that 56 percent of mobile phones in the U.S. are Apple devices. Among that majority of iOS users, experts anticipate average opt-in rates of just 20-30 percent. While your digital ads will still reach the app users who opt out, the lack of tracking data means they might not reach the targeted audience you want.

“The days of lights-out performance optimization are coming to a close,” Schmitt says. “One of the areas with greatest exposure is paid social campaigns. And if you have a lot of investment in performance marketing campaigns based on retargeting and look-alike targeting, those programs are really at risk.”

What’s a chief marketer to do? Schmitt offers a few suggestions:

* Make sure your team is upgrading software, updating pixels and data flows, and following other guidance from major platforms such as Facebook, Google and Instagram. Facebook, for instance, has implemented Aggregated Event Measurement (AEM) to help compensate for a lack of individual tracking data.

* Estimate the potential business impact. Review revenue, subscriptions and traffic previously and currently generated by performance-based marketing, as well as expenses related to the programs. Then create scenarios based on several potential opt-in rates. “Opt-in rates are really difficult to predict,” Schmitt notes. “They’re going to vary by app for sure. I think it’s possible that for social media apps they might creep up over time. If users start getting ads for things that aren’t relevant to them, they might say, ‘Okay, I’m cool with [being tracked]’ and opt in.”

Another thing to keep in mind is that ad prices might change. If less-effective targeting leads to a decline in advertisers, platforms could reduce prices. Then again, they might not. Right now, it’s impossible to predict.

* Consider pulling back on creative tests of digital ads. “Measurement is going to degrade,” Schmitt says. “There’s not enough data to test as many variables.”

* Be flexible regarding media commitments. Fluctuating opt-in rates and ever-changing publisher adjustments in response to ATT could cause performance to vary wildly month by month (or even week by week), so make sure your media plans can be tweaked as needed.

* Consider allocating some performance-marketing dollars to alternative channels. Content marketing, podcasts and Twitch are a few options you could test or expand your investment in. “I think there will be holdbacks for sure, and the potential for reallocation is there,” Schmitt says. “The challenge is there’s no alternative out there that offers comparable returns.”

* Keep the C-suite and other stakeholders informed of these changes and the possible effects on business. “The CMO is going to be in charge of not only managing change but also keeping the wheels on the car regarding marketing,” Schmitt says.

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